Factfulness
This is a book about the world and how it really is. It is also a book about you, and why you do not see the word as it really is . It is about what you can do about it , and this will make you feel more positive, less stressed , and more hopeful as you walk out of the circus tent and back into the world. So, if you are more interested in being right than in continunig to live in your bubble; If you are willing to change your worldview; if you are ready for critical thinking to replace instinctive reaction and if you are feeling humble , curious, and ready to be amazed — than please read on . This book has 11 chapters , let’s take a glance on each.
Chap #1;The Gap instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing when a story talks about a gap . To control the gap instinct, look for the majority.Beware comparison of averages; If you could check the spreads you would probably find they overlap . There is probably no gap at all.
Beware comparison of extremes. In all groups , of countries or people, there are some at the top and some at the bottom. The difference is sometimes extremely unfair. But even then the majority is usually somewhere in between, right where the gap is supposed to be.
The view from up here. Remember, looking down from above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short , but it’s not.
Chap #2;The Negativity instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing when we get negative news, and remembering that information about bad events is much more likely to reach us . When things are getting better we often don’t hear about them . This gives us a systematically too - negative impression of the world around us, which is very stressful. To control the negativity instinct, expect bas news.Better And Bad. Convince yourself that things can be both better and bad .
Good news is not news. Good news is almost never reported. So news is almost always bad. When yoy see bad news , ask whether equally positive news would have reached you .
More news does not equal more suffering. More bad news is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering, not a worsening world.
Beware of Rosy pasts. People often glorify their early experiences, and nations often glorify their histories .
Chap #3; The straight line instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing the assumptions that a line will just continue straight, and remembering that such lines are rare in reality. To control the straight line instinct remember that curves come in different shapes.Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S - bends , slides , humps, or doubling lines. No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months, and no parents would expect it to.
Chap#4;The fear instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing when frightening things get our attention, and remembering that these are not necessarily the most risky. To control the fear instinct, calculate the risks.The scary world:fear vs. reality. The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected—by your own attention filter or by the media — precisely because it is scary.
Risk= danger \\exposure. The risk something poses to you depends not on how scared it makes you feel , but on a combination of two things . How dangerous is it? And how much are you exposed on it?
Get calm before you carry on. When you are afraid, you see the world differently. Make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.
Chap#5;The size instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing when a lonely number seems impressive (small or large) and remembering that you could get the opposite impression if it were compared with or divided by some other relevant number. To control the size instinct, get things in proportion.Compare. Big numbers always look big, Single numbers on their own are misleading and should make you suspicious. Always look for comparisons. Ideally, devide by something.
80/20. Have you been given a long list? Look for the few largest items and deal with those first . They are quite likely more important than all the others put together.
Divide. Amounts and rates can tell very different stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between different size groups. In particular look for rates per person when comparing between countries or regions.
Chap#6; The Generalization instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing when a category is being used in an explanation, and remembering that categories can be misleading. To control the generalization instinct, question your categories.Look for differences within groups. Especially when the groups are large , look for ways to split them into smaller, more precise categories. And…..
Look for similar across groups. If you find striking similarities between different groups , consider whether your categories are relevant. But also…
Look for different across groups. Do not assume that what applies for one group (e.g., you and other people living on Level 4 or unconscious soldiers) applies for another ( e.g., prople not living on level 4 or sleeping babies)
Beware of the majority. The majority just means more than half . Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in between.
Beware of vivid examples. Vivid images are easier to recall but they might be the exception rather than the rule.
Assume people are not idiots. When something looks strange, be curious and humble, and think , in what way is this a smart solution?
Chap #7;The destiny instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing that many things ( including peoples, countries, religions and cultures) appear to be constant just because the change is happening slowly, and remembering that even small , slow changes gradually add up to big changes. To control the destiny instinct, remember slow change is still change.Keep track of gradual improvements. A small change every year can translate to a huge change over decades.
Update your knowledge. Some knowledge goes out of date quickly. Technology, countries, societies, cultures and religions are constantly changing.
Talk to Grandpa. If you want to be reminded of how values have changed, think about your grandparents values and how they differ from yours.
Collect examples of cultural change . Challenge the idea that today’s culture must also have been yesterday’s, and will also be tomorrow’s.
Chap #8;The single perspective instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing that a single perspective can limit your imagination, and remembering that it is better to look at problems from many angles to get a more accurate understanding and find practical solutions. To control the single perspective instinct, get a toolbox , not a hammer.Test your ideas. Don’t only collect examples that show how excellent your favourite ideas are . Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
Limited experience. Don’t claim expertise beyond your field: be humble about what you don’t know. Be aware too of the limits of the experience of others.
Hammers and nails. If you are good with a tool , you may want to use it too often . If you have analyzed a problem in depth, you can end up exaggerating the importance of that problem or of your solution.
Beware of simple ideas and simple solutions. History is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to justify terrible actions. Welcome complexity . Combine ideas . Compromise. Solve problem on s case by case basis.
Chap #9;The Blame instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing when a scapegoat is being used and remembering that blaming. To control the blame instinct, resist finding a scapegoat.Look for causes not villains. When something goes wrong don’t look for an individual or a group to blame . Accept that bad things can happen without anyone intending them to . Instead spend your energy on understanding the multiple interacting causes, or systems, that created the situation.
Look for systems, not heroes. When someone claims to have caused something good , ask whether the outcome might have happened anyway, even if that individual had done nothing. Give the system some credit.
Chap #10;The urgency instinct:
Factfulness is recognizing when decisions feels urgent and remembering that it rarely is . To control the urgency instinct, take small steps.Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is triggered, your other instincts kick in and your analysis shuts down. Ask for more time and more information. It’s rarely now or never and it’s rarely either/or.
Insist on the data. If something is urgent and important, it should be measured. Beware of data that is relevant but inaccurate, or accurate but irrelevant. Only relevant and accurate data is useful.
Beware of fortune tellers. Any prediction about future is uncertain. Be wary of predictions that fail to acknowledge that. Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst case . Ask how often such predictions have been right before.
Remarks:
One of the most important book I've ever read , an indispensable guide of thinking clearly about the world . (Bill Gates)
Factfulness , the stress - reducing habit of only carrying opinions for which you have strong supporting facts .
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